Since the beginning of last year, the best four performers among the emerging markets have been Thailand, Peru, Chile, and Indonesia. This last country is the sole member of the so-called "CIVETS" (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) economies that we'll be looking at here.

Of these four emerging-market economies, Peru now carries a startlingly lofty price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 44.9. Indonesia and Chile are also fully valued, at more than 20 times earnings (a valuation that's much less forgivable for a market than for an individual stock). Only Thailand looks reasonably valued, at about 14 times earnings.

However, market optimism this year has not taken full account of the political risk that Thailand faces. The current government ousted the country's legitimately elected administration in 2008 under some very dubious circumstances. And the newcomers in the Thai government remain very unpopular outside Bangkok.

Since an election is due this year, the chances of something going badly wrong must be pretty high. And even if the current government maneuvers itself to re-election, the risk of unrest is high.

The bottom line: In spite of the decent growth rate - and apparently reasonable valuation - Thailand is best left alone.